President
McCain has conceded Michigan. Expect Minnesota, New Mexico, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to come next week.
Therefore, the final states will be:
New Hampshire – McCain simply won’t concede this one, even though he’s clearly behind.
Colorado – This state will be fairly close. It has a large military population in Colorado Springs, yet very liberal areas in Pueblo, Boulder, and Greeley.
Florida – Cubans in South Florida are reliably Republican, yet expect Obama to take a decent percentage. Broward and Palm Beach are strong Democratic territory, along with Gainesville, Daytona Beach, and Tallahassee.
Jacksonville is evenly split since it has a large African-American population, but also a large military population also. The Panhandle is reliable Republican territory, along with Fort Myers, Melbourne, and Naples.
Therefore, expect much of the campaigning in the final weeks to be centered in Orlando, Lakeland, Tampa, and Saint Petersburg. This is the decisive territory for Florida. The current trend for all these counties is favorable to Democrats, with the exception of Seminole and Lake Counties.
Missouri – McCain will continue campaigning here, yet I expect Obama will cut back a little to concentrate on the East Coast.
Saint Louis, Columbia, and Kansas City are the reliable Democratic areas. Joplin and Springfield (Evangelical Country) are strong Republican. Obama will only win here if he can bring out African-Americans, labor unions, and college students. This race may be close, yet I expect McCain may have a slight advantage.
North Carolina – The state has never been considered competitive, yet the large African-American population and a large population of Northeasterner’s has all of a sudden made North Carolina worth fighting for.
Raleigh and Durham are the Democratic strongholds. The inner cities of Greensboro and Charlotte should also favor Obama. The suburbs of both cities however should favor McCain, along with Asheville and Winston-Salem. Jacksonville and Fayetteville, areas with military populations, yet African-American populations, should give McCain a slight nod. The northeastern part of North Carolina (Greenville, Rocky Mount, and Goldsboro) should also be relatively favorable to Obama. The decisive factor here will be turnout, something which Obama is using to his advantage.
Indiana – The strong Democratic areas should be Lake and Porter counties (Chicago suburbs), Lafayette, Bloomington, and at least slightly half of Indianapolis. South Bend may narrowly favor McCain. Areas favorable to McCain will be downstate (Evansville and New Albany), South Bend, Terre Haute, and Columbus. The state will be difficult for Obama to carry, yet simply forcing McCain to spend here makes it all worthwhile.
Nevada – Las Vegas should be strong for Obama and since most of the state’s voters are concentrated in Clark County, McCain will have a difficult time winning here.
Ohio – If it’s Jobs and the Economy, as it was in Michigan, then McCain is in serious trouble. Every major city in the state should favor Obama, with the exception of the suburbs of Columbus and Cincinnati. Dayton and Springfield may be the two cities that prove most challenging, yet Obama should do extremely well in Akron, Cleveland, Youngstown, and Toledo. I see no way McCain will carry Ohio. Simply not going to happen in 2008.
Virginia – The state’s changing demographics has turned a red state purple, expect Texas to be the next one to turn purple. Northern Virginia is strong Democratic, along with Richmond and Petersburg. Norfolk and Virginia Beach are strong Republican, yet expect Obama to take significant votes here, largely due to African-Americans. Roanoke and Lynchburg are most likely favorable to McCain. Richmond, most of Northern Virginia, and close to half of the Norfolk-Virginia Beach population is good enough for Obama to prevail, absent the rural votes.
Expect Obama to compete for two other areas which McCain see’s in his column: The Omaha congressional district and Montana.
Montana is favorable to Democrats in the Indian Reservations and Missoula. Billings, the largest city, is the lone Republican stronghold. If McCain is forced to spend here at the last minute, then he’s in deep trouble.
I think NH is the only 2004 Kerry state that McCain will stay active in until election day, if for nothing else than the fact that it’s cheap. The rest are just too unfavorable for him to have any chance in.
As far as the 2004 red states I think it’s fair to say IA and NM are almost certain to go for Obama. So basically that forces McCain to hold every single other state that went for Bush in 2004, and that ain’t likely.
If I had to make an early guess I’d say Obama holds all states that went red in 2004 and carries CO, FL, IA, NV, NM, NC, and VA. That would be a 333-205 win.
Also, why is it that in Montana, as you note, as well as in Oklahoma, as one of my friends put it, that the urbanites are Republican and rural people are Democratic, as opposed to conventional wisdom?
all about the presidential race? What’s up with that? lol.
but I had to stop reading seriously when you called Pueblo and Greeley “very liberal.” (And left out Denver.)
Kept going, but of the states I knew reasonably well, Nevada and Montana were pretty poorly described also.
You may well be spot-on on the states I know less well, but it’s difficult to trust your authority after those three.
Oh, and Obama doing “extremely well” in Youngstown OH would be nice, but is hardly a foregone conclusion. Au contraire, Youngstown was held up in the press as the type of Dem/swing town that Obama is uniquely weak in only a few months ago.